Skill Trajectory Models

draft outline scaffold — not yet drafted, genuinely new territory. Tracked as sail-d5hv.

Unlike the previous four sections, this one isn’t framed around a single collaborator’s interests — it’s general, cross-cutting groundwork, worth anyone in this compendium reading. What we’ve built so far (sail-judge) is the scaffolding half of SAITO: the live, per-turn asker/discourse- driver bandit. The trajectory half — a model of a learner’s skill changing over many sessions, not just how to intervene in one turn — doesn’t exist yet in any form.

What’s real to ground this in

• sail-3scs — STM v0 on the accumulated trace corpus, currently deferred to Phase 3. Not started: no model, no training run.
• The facts-table substrate sail-judge already runs on (subject/predicate/object/confidence/disputed/source_event) — the same storage STM would need, already shipped for a different purpose.
• The original bootstrap plan’s own framing: STM as the “trace-only” fallback once EEG got parked (2026-07-03-sail-bootstrap-plan.md, Phase 3).
• The circularity caveat already written up in the EEG/fMRI chapter’s speculative section: STM tracks the same modality as the outcome itself, which makes it tempting to treat “the trace pattern moved” as ground truth without checking against real learning gain — worth restating here rather than only in a chapter it’s just a footnote to.

Not yet done

No outline beyond this page exists. This section is a placeholder for a real brainstorming pass, not a summary of one that already happened.